League One

League One | Gameweek 15

Oct 24, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Pride Park Stadium

Derby
2 - 0
Exeter

Mendez-Laing (30'), Washington (79')
Hourihane (34'), Sibley (55')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Watts (62')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Derby County and Exeter City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Shrewsbury 1-0 Derby
Saturday, October 21 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Exeter City

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Exeter 0-2 Wigan
Saturday, October 21 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 55.29%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Exeter City had a probability of 21.46%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.83%) and 2-0 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.03%), while for a Exeter City win it was 0-1 (6.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Exeter City
55.29% ( 0.15)	23.25% ( -0.06)	21.46% ( -0.09)

Both teams to score 53.11% (

0.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.04% (

0.16)

46.96% (

-0.15)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.79% (

0.14)

69.21% (

-0.14)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.16% (

0.11)

16.84% (

-0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.16% (

0.19)

46.84% (

-0.19)

Exeter City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.86% (

36.13% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.08% (

72.92% (

Score Analysis

Derby County 55.28%

Exeter City 21.46%

Draw 23.25%

Derby County	Draw	Exeter City
1-0 @ 10.83% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 9.83% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.66% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5.84% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 5.73% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.97% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.6% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 2.55% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.32% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 0.93% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 0.91% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.11% Total : 55.28%	1-1 @ 11.03% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 6.09% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 5% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.01% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.12% Total : 23.25%	0-1 @ 6.19% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 5.62% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 3.15% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 1.91% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.7% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.07% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.83% Total : 21.46%