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FA Cup | First Round Replays
Nov 14, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Pride Park Stadium (Derby)
Crewe Alexandra

Derby
1 - 3
Crewe

Barkhuizen (3')
Wilson (28'), Sibley (37')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Rowe (7', 21'), Demetriou (65')
Tracey (79'), Thomas (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's FA Cup clash between Derby County and Crewe Alexandra, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Derby 3-0 Barnsley
Saturday, November 11 at 3pm in League One

Crewe Alexandra

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Crewe 1-0 Notts County
Saturday, November 11 at 3pm in League Two

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 66.5%. A draw had a probability of 19.2% and a win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 14.28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.16%) and 2-1 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.07%), while for a Crewe Alexandra win it was 0-1 (4.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.

Result
Derby CountyDrawCrewe Alexandra
66.5% (0.0040000000000049 0)19.22% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)14.28% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01)
Both teams to score 52.29% (-0.061 -0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59% (-0.063000000000002 -0.06)40.99% (0.058 0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.61% (-0.063000000000002 -0.06)63.38% (0.058 0.06)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.55% (-0.017999999999986 -0.02)11.45% (0.013 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
63.73% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)36.27% (0.031999999999996 0.03)
Crewe Alexandra Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.05% (-0.059999999999995 -0.06)40.95% (0.057000000000002 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.49% (-0.051000000000002 -0.05)77.51% (0.046999999999997 0.05)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 66.49%
    Crewe Alexandra 14.28%
    Draw 19.22%
Derby CountyDrawCrewe Alexandra
2-0 @ 11.01% (0.02 0.02)
1-0 @ 10.16% (0.02 0.02)
2-1 @ 9.83% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
3-0 @ 7.95% (0.0070000000000006 0.01)
3-1 @ 7.1% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-0 @ 4.31% (0.00099999999999945 0)
4-1 @ 3.85% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-2 @ 3.17% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
5-0 @ 1.87% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
4-2 @ 1.72% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
5-1 @ 1.67% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 3.86%
Total : 66.49%
1-1 @ 9.07% (0.004999999999999 0)
0-0 @ 4.69% (0.013000000000001 0.01)
2-2 @ 4.39% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
3-3 @ 0.94% (-0.003 -0)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 19.22%
0-1 @ 4.19% (0.0040000000000004 0)
1-2 @ 4.05% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
0-2 @ 1.87% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
2-3 @ 1.31% (-0.004 -0)
1-3 @ 1.21% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 1.66%
Total : 14.28%

How you voted: Derby vs Crewe

Derby County
83.3%
Draw
8.3%
Crewe Alexandra
8.3%
48
Head to Head
Nov 5, 2023 2.45pm
First Round
Crewe
2-2
Derby
Baker-Richardson (41'), Nevitt (54')
Mendez-Laing (89'), Hourihane (90+3')
Jan 14, 2006 3pm
Derby
5-1
Crewe
Johnson (21'), Smith (53', 63'), Idiakez (71'), Peschisolido (11')
Vaughan (79')
Turnbull (71')
Sep 11, 2005 3pm
Crewe
1-1
Derby
Rivers (30')
Foster (36')
Bisgaard (49')
Davies (17'), Johnson (67')
Davies (62')
Apr 5, 2005 3pm
Crewe
1-2
Derby
Vaughan (90')
Lunt (81')
Smith (74'), Rasiak (16')
Bolder (65')
Aug 28, 2004 3pm
Derby
2-4
Crewe
Idiakez (46'), Tudgay (16')
Idiakez (60')
Jones (5', 83'), Vaughan (12'), Ashton (74')
rhs 2.0


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