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Derby logo
EFL Trophy | Second Round
Dec 5, 2023 at 7pm UK
Pride Park Stadium (Derby)
Fleetwood Town
Derby
3 - 0
Fleetwood
Collins (25', 77'), John-Jules (88')
Waghorn (43'), Hourihane (79')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Heneghan (18'), Earl (26'), Wiredu (35')
Coverage of the EFL Trophy Second Round clash between Derby County and Fleetwood Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Port Vale 0-1 Derby
Tuesday, November 28 at 7.45pm in League One

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 60.88%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Fleetwood Town had a probability of 17.79%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.34%) and 2-1 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.09%), while for a Fleetwood Town win it was 0-1 (5.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawFleetwood Town
60.88% (0.011000000000003 0.01) 21.33% (-0.0040000000000013 -0) 17.79% (-0.004999999999999 -0)
Both teams to score 53.18% (0.009999999999998 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.17% (0.015000000000001 0.02)43.82% (-0.014000000000003 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.79% (0.015999999999998 0.02)66.21% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.07% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)13.92% (-0.0080000000000009 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.62% (0.015999999999998 0.02)41.38% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Fleetwood Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.78% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)38.21% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.02% (0.0040000000000013 0)74.98% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 60.88%
    Fleetwood Town 17.79%
    Draw 21.33%
Derby CountyDrawFleetwood Town
1-0 @ 10.49%
2-0 @ 10.34%
2-1 @ 9.95%
3-0 @ 6.8% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-1 @ 6.54% (0.0020000000000007 0)
4-0 @ 3.35% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-1 @ 3.22% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-2 @ 3.15% (0.0020000000000002 0)
4-2 @ 1.55% (0.0010000000000001 0)
5-0 @ 1.32% (0.00099999999999989 0)
5-1 @ 1.27% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 2.9%
Total : 60.88%
1-1 @ 10.09%
0-0 @ 5.32% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-2 @ 4.79% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-3 @ 1.01%
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 21.33%
0-1 @ 5.12% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-2 @ 4.85%
0-2 @ 2.46% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
1-3 @ 1.56%
2-3 @ 1.53%
Other @ 2.26%
Total : 17.79%

How you voted: Derby vs Fleetwood

Derby County
82.4%
Draw
11.8%
Fleetwood Town
5.9%
17
Head to Head
Aug 19, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 4
Derby
1-0
Fleetwood
Waghorn (23')
Mendez-Laing (30'), Thompson (40'), Waghorn (55')

Mayor (39'), Johnston (69'), Quitirna (90+2')
Mar 18, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 37
Derby
0-2
Fleetwood
Wildsmith (11' og.), Mendes Gomes (30')
Aug 20, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 5
Fleetwood
0-0
Derby
Rooney (85')
Hourihane (60')
rhs 2.0
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