League One

League One | Gameweek 20

Nov 28, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Vale Park

Port Vale
0 - 1
Derby

Iacovitti (71'), Loft (84')

FT(HT: 0-0)

John-Jules (77')

Coverage of the League One clash between Port Vale and Derby County.

Form, Standings, Stats

Port Vale

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Shrewsbury 2-1 Port Vale
Saturday, November 25 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Derby County

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Derby 2-1 Bristol Rovers
Saturday, November 25 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 42.89%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 30.62% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.81%) and 0-2 (7.73%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 1-0 (9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.59%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Derby County in this match.

Result
Port Vale	Draw	Derby County
30.62% ( 0.81)	26.5% ( 0.31)	42.89% ( -1.12)

Both teams to score 51.2% (

-0.55)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.58% (

-0.9)

53.42% (

0.91)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.05% (

-0.77)

74.95% (

0.78)

Port Vale Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.99% (

0.12)

32.01% (

-0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.52% (

0.14)

68.48% (

-0.13)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.31% (

-0.95)

24.69% (

0.96)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.78% (

-1.35)

59.23% (

1.36)

Score Analysis

Port Vale 30.62%

Derby County 42.88%

Draw 26.49%

Port Vale	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 9% ( 0.35) 2-1 @ 7.17% ( 0.1) 2-0 @ 5.13% ( 0.21) 3-1 @ 2.72% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 1.95% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 1.9% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.75% Total : 30.62%	1-1 @ 12.59% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 7.9% ( 0.28) 2-2 @ 5.02% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.98% Total : 26.49%	0-1 @ 11.05% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 8.81% ( -0.15) 0-2 @ 7.73% ( -0.15) 1-3 @ 4.11% ( -0.19) 0-3 @ 3.61% ( -0.18) 2-3 @ 2.34% ( -0.1) 1-4 @ 1.44% ( -0.11) 0-4 @ 1.26% ( -0.1) Other @ 2.54% Total : 42.88%