League One

League One | Gameweek 26

Jan 24, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Vale Park

Port Vale
1 - 2
Derby

Ojo (56')

FT(HT: 0-0)

McGoldrick (87'), Mendez-Laing (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Port Vale and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Port Vale

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Port Vale 0-2 Peterborough
Monday, January 16 at 8pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Derby County

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Derby 2-1 Bolton
Saturday, January 21 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 43.5%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 29.29% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.69%) and 0-2 (8.21%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 1-0 (9.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Derby County in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Derby County.

Result
Port Vale	Draw	Derby County
29.29% ( -1.45)	27.2% ( -0.69)	43.5% ( 2.13)

Both teams to score 48.44% (

1.31)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.35% (

1.97)

56.64% (

-1.98)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.39% (

1.56)

77.61% (

-1.57)

Port Vale Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.31% (

-0.04)

34.69% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.58% (

-0.04)

71.41% (

0.04)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.17% (

2.05)

25.83% (

-2.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.2% (

2.69)

60.79% (

-2.7)

Score Analysis

Port Vale 29.29%

Derby County 43.5%

Draw 27.2%

Port Vale	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 9.49% ( -0.74) 2-1 @ 6.8% ( -0.13) 2-0 @ 5.02% ( -0.4) 3-1 @ 2.4% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 1.77% ( -0.14) 3-2 @ 1.62% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.19% Total : 29.29%	1-1 @ 12.84% ( -0.23) 0-0 @ 8.96% ( -0.7) 2-2 @ 4.6% ( 0.18) Other @ 0.8% Total : 27.2%	0-1 @ 12.12% ( -0.21) 1-2 @ 8.69% ( 0.34) 0-2 @ 8.21% ( 0.33) 1-3 @ 3.92% ( 0.37) 0-3 @ 3.7% ( 0.35) 2-3 @ 2.08% ( 0.19) 1-4 @ 1.33% ( 0.19) 0-4 @ 1.25% ( 0.18) Other @ 2.2% Total : 43.5%