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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 43.5%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 29.29% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.69%) and 0-2 (8.21%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 1-0 (9.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Derby County in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Derby County.
Result | ||
Port Vale | Draw | Derby County |
29.29% ( -1.45) | 27.2% ( -0.69) | 43.5% ( 2.13) |
Both teams to score 48.44% ( 1.31) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.35% ( 1.97) | 56.64% ( -1.98) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.39% ( 1.56) | 77.61% ( -1.57) |
Port Vale Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.31% ( -0.04) | 34.69% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.58% ( -0.04) | 71.41% ( 0.04) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.17% ( 2.05) | 25.83% ( -2.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.2% ( 2.69) | 60.79% ( -2.7) |
Score Analysis |
Port Vale | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 9.49% ( -0.74) 2-1 @ 6.8% ( -0.13) 2-0 @ 5.02% ( -0.4) 3-1 @ 2.4% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 1.77% ( -0.14) 3-2 @ 1.62% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.19% Total : 29.29% | 1-1 @ 12.84% ( -0.23) 0-0 @ 8.96% ( -0.7) 2-2 @ 4.6% ( 0.18) Other @ 0.8% Total : 27.2% | 0-1 @ 12.12% ( -0.21) 1-2 @ 8.69% ( 0.34) 0-2 @ 8.21% ( 0.33) 1-3 @ 3.92% ( 0.37) 0-3 @ 3.7% ( 0.35) 2-3 @ 2.08% ( 0.19) 1-4 @ 1.33% ( 0.19) 0-4 @ 1.25% ( 0.18) Other @ 2.2% Total : 43.5% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Portsmouth | 46 | 28 | 13 | 5 | 78 | 41 | 37 | 97 |
P | Derby CountyDerby | 46 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 78 | 37 | 41 | 92 |
3 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 46 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 86 | 51 | 35 | 87 |
4 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 46 | 25 | 9 | 12 | 89 | 61 | 28 | 84 |
5 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 46 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 79 | 56 | 23 | 77 |
6 | Barnsley | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 82 | 64 | 18 | 76 |
7 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 46 | 20 | 14 | 12 | 65 | 40 | 25 | 74 |
8 | Blackpool | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 65 | 48 | 17 | 73 |
9 | Stevenage | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 57 | 46 | 11 | 71 |
10 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 60 | 55 | 5 | 65 |
11 | Leyton Orient | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 65 |
12 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 46 | 20 | 10 | 16 | 63 | 56 | 7 | 62 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 46 | 61 | -15 | 61 |
14 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 46 | 17 | 9 | 20 | 57 | 66 | -9 | 60 |
15 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 57 |
16 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 46 | 11 | 20 | 15 | 64 | 65 | -1 | 53 |
17 | Reading | 46 | 16 | 11 | 19 | 68 | 70 | -2 | 53 |
18 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 46 | 12 | 12 | 22 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 48 |
19 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 46 | 13 | 9 | 24 | 35 | 67 | -32 | 48 |
20 | Burton Albion | 46 | 12 | 10 | 24 | 39 | 67 | -28 | 46 |
R | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 12 | 8 | 26 | 41 | 65 | -24 | 44 |
R | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 49 | 72 | -23 | 43 |
R | Port Vale | 46 | 10 | 11 | 25 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 41 |
R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 7 | 9 | 30 | 41 | 81 | -40 | 30 |
> League One Full Table |