AFC Wimbledon
Barnsley
Blackpool
Bolton logo
Bradford City
Burton Albion
Cardiff City logo
Doncaster Rovers
Exeter City
Huddersfield logo
Leyton Orient
Lincoln City
Luton Town
Mansfield Town
Northampton Town
Peterborough United
Plymouth Argyle
Port Vale
Reading logo
Rotherham logo
Stevenage
Stockport County
Wigan logo
Wycombe Wanderers
Championship header 2

League One

Cheltenham Town
League One | Gameweek 27
Jan 14, 2023 at 3pm UK
Jonny-Rocks Stadium
Derby logo

Cheltenham
2 - 3
Derby

Taylor (2'), May (77')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Hourihane (8'), Bird (11'), Barkhuizen (55')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Cheltenham Town and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Cheltenham Town

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Cheltenham 3-1 Salford City
Tuesday, January 10 at 7.45pm in EFL Trophy

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Derby 3-0 Barnsley
Sunday, January 8 at 12.30pm in FA Cup

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 48.03%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 25.54%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.22%) and 1-2 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.47%), while for a Cheltenham Town win it was 1-0 (8.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Cheltenham TownDrawDerby County
25.54% (0.105 0.11)26.43% (0.109 0.11)48.03% (-0.21299999999999 -0.21)
Both teams to score 48.13% (-0.21400000000001 -0.21)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.2% (-0.325 -0.32)55.8% (0.326 0.33)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.08% (-0.264 -0.26)76.93% (0.26599999999999 0.27)
Cheltenham Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.72% (-0.084999999999994 -0.08)37.28% (0.087000000000003 0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.93% (-0.084 -0.08)74.07% (0.085999999999999 0.09)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.74% (-0.236 -0.24)23.26% (0.237 0.24)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.82% (-0.344 -0.34)57.18% (0.34699999999999 0.35)
Score Analysis
    Cheltenham Town 25.55%
    Derby County 48.02%
    Draw 26.42%
Cheltenham TownDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 8.56% (0.087 0.09)
2-1 @ 6.16% (0.0049999999999999 0)
2-0 @ 4.22% (0.033 0.03)
3-1 @ 2.02% (-0.004 -0)
3-2 @ 1.48% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-0 @ 1.39% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 1.72%
Total : 25.55%
1-1 @ 12.47% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
0-0 @ 8.67% (0.109 0.11)
2-2 @ 4.49% (-0.028 -0.03)
Other @ 0.79%
Total : 26.42%
0-1 @ 12.64% (0.07 0.07)
0-2 @ 9.22% (-0.013 -0.01)
1-2 @ 9.1% (-0.034000000000001 -0.03)
0-3 @ 4.48% (-0.038 -0.04)
1-3 @ 4.42% (-0.048 -0.05)
2-3 @ 2.18% (-0.029 -0.03)
0-4 @ 1.64% (-0.025 -0.02)
1-4 @ 1.61% (-0.029 -0.03)
Other @ 2.72%
Total : 48.02%

How you voted: Cheltenham vs Derby

Cheltenham Town
7.1%
Draw
14.3%
Derby County
78.6%
14