FA Cup

FA Cup | Third Round

Jan 8, 2023 at 12.30pm UK

Pride Park Stadium

Derby
3 - 0
Barnsley

Collins (45+1' pen.), Barkhuizen (60'), Knight (79')

FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's FA Cup clash between Derby County and Barnsley, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Derby 4-0 Accrington
Monday, January 2 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Barnsley

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Barnsley 0-3 Bolton
Monday, January 2 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 53.88%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Barnsley had a probability of 22.06%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.78%) and 2-1 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.44%), while for a Barnsley win it was 0-1 (6.75%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Barnsley
53.88% ( 0.53)	24.06% ( -0.02)	22.06% ( -0.51)

Both teams to score 51.39% (

-0.57)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.36% (

-0.44)

49.64% (

0.44)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.34% (

-0.39)

71.66% (

0.4)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.66% (

0.04)

18.34% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.55% (

0.06)

49.45% (

-0.06)

Barnsley Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.94% (

-0.73)

37.06% (

0.73)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.15% (

-0.73)

73.84% (

0.73)

Score Analysis

Derby County 53.87%

Barnsley 22.06%

Draw 24.06%

Derby County	Draw	Barnsley
1-0 @ 11.52% ( 0.22) 2-0 @ 9.78% ( 0.2) 2-1 @ 9.7% ( 0) 3-0 @ 5.53% ( 0.12) 3-1 @ 5.49% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.72% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 2.34% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 2.33% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.16% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.31% Total : 53.87%	1-1 @ 11.44% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.8% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 4.82% ( -0.1) 3-3 @ 0.9% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.1% Total : 24.06%	0-1 @ 6.75% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 5.68% ( -0.12) 0-2 @ 3.35% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 1.88% ( -0.08) 2-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 1.11% ( -0.05) Other @ 1.71% Total : 22.06%