Africa Cup of Nations
Jan 9, 2026 4.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 1
FT Rabat Annex
  • Nene Dorgeles 55' yellowcard
  • Gaoussou Diakité 69' yellowcard
  • Kamory Doumbia 82' yellowcard
  • Mamadou Doumbia 82' yellowcard
  • El Bilal Toure 82' yellowcard
  • Mahamadou Doumbia 82' yellowcard
  • Mahamadou Doumbia 83' yellowcard
  • El Bilal Toure 83' yellowcard
  • Kamory Doumbia 83' yellowcard
  • goal Iliman Ndiaye 27'
  • yellowcard Pathe Ciss 62'
  • yellowcard Lamine Camara 62'
  • yellowcard Ibrahim Mbaye 75'
  • yellowcard Cherif Ndiaye 75'

Mali vs Senegal - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Mali

All competitions

Senegal

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Senegal win with a probability of 54.55%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Mali had a probability of 18.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Senegal win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12%) and 1-2 (8.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.89%) , while for a Mali win it was 1-0 (8.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 16.7% likelihood.

Result

Mali 18.5% (+18.50)
Draw 26.9% (+26.90)
Senegal 54.55% (+54.55)

Both Teams to Score: 

38.9% (+38.90)

Goals

Over 1.5 63.38% (+63.38)
Under 1.5 36.62% (+36.62)
Over 2.5 36.55% (+36.55)
Under 2.5 63.45% (+63.45)
Over 3.5 17.2% (+17.20)
Under 3.5 82.8% (+82.80)
Over 4.5 9% (+9.00)
Under 4.5 91% (+91.00)

Mali Goals

Over 1.5 15.11% (+15.11)
Under 1.5 84.89% (+84.89)
Over 2.5 3.38% (+3.38)
Under 2.5 96.62% (+96.62)
Over 3.5 0.6% (+0.60)
Under 3.5 99.4% (+99.40)

Senegal Goals

Over 0.5 75.84% (+75.84)
Under 0.5 24.16% (+24.16)
Over 1.5 41.98% (+41.98)
Under 1.5 58.02% (+58.02)
Over 2.5 17.63% (+17.63)
Under 2.5 82.37% (+82.37)
Over 3.5 5.89% (+5.89)
Under 3.5 94.11% (+94.11)

Score analysis

Mali 18.5%
Draw 26.89%
Senegal 54.55%
Mali
1-0 @ 8.27%
2-1 @ 4.26%
2-0 @ 2.95%
3-1 @ 1.01%
Other @ 0.58% (+0.58)
Total : 18.5%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.89%
0-0 @ 11.59%
2-2 @ 3.05%
Other @ 0.02% (+0.02)
Total : 26.89%
Senegal
0-1 @ 16.7%
0-2 @ 12%
1-2 @ 8.58%
0-3 @ 5.8%
1-3 @ 4.13%
2-3 @ 1.47%
Other @ 5.87% (+5.87)
Total : 54.55%

Head to Head

International Friendlies
Oct 14, 2023 1.00am
Stade Leopold Sedar Senghor
International Friendlies
Mar 26, 2019 5.00pm
2
1
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Elhadji Pape Diaw 41' yellowcard
  • Sadio Mane 87' goal
  • Moussa Konate 92' goal
  • Pape Abou Cisse 93' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Abdoulaye Traore 45'
  • goal Abdoulaye Traore 72'