Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations | Round of 16

Jan 3, 2026 at 7pm UK

2nd Group A
1 - 1
2nd Group C

FT
(aet)

Mali win 3-2 on penalties

Coverage of the Africa Cup of Nations Round of 16 clash between Mali and Tunisia.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mali

All competitions

This competition

Last Game: Mali 1-1 Tunisia (3-2 pen.)
Saturday, January 3 at 7pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mali	3	2	5
2	South Africa	3	2	4
3	Namibia	3	-3	4
4	Tunisia	3	-1	2

Tunisia

All competitions

This competition

Last Game: Mali 1-1 Tunisia (3-2 pen.)
Saturday, January 3 at 7pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mali	3	2	5
2	South Africa	3	2	4
3	Namibia	3	-3	4
4	Tunisia	3	-1	2

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a 2nd position Group A win with a probability of 46.34%. A win for 2nd Group C has a probability of 33.09% and a draw has a probability of 20.57%.

The most likely scoreline for a 2nd position Group A win is 2-1 with a probability of 7.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 3-1 (5.72%) and 3-2 (5.17%). The likeliest 2nd Group C win is 1-2 (6.72%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (7.44%).

Result
Mali	Draw	Tunisia
46.34%	20.57%	33.09%

Both teams to score 73.8%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

75.49%

24.5%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

55.73%

44.27%

Mali Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.33%

11.67%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

63.26%

36.74%

Tunisia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.55%

16.45%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.86%

46.13%

Score Analysis

Mali 46.34%

Tunisia 33.09%

Draw 20.57%

Mali	Draw	Tunisia
2-1 @ 7.99% 3-1 @ 5.72% 3-2 @ 5.17% 2-0 @ 4.43% 1-0 @ 4.12% 3-0 @ 3.17% 4-1 @ 3.07% 4-2 @ 2.77% 4-0 @ 1.7% 4-3 @ 1.67% 5-1 @ 1.32% 5-2 @ 1.19% Other @ 4.01% Total : 46.34%	1-1 @ 7.44% 2-2 @ 7.21% 3-3 @ 3.11% 0-0 @ 1.92% Other @ 0.88% Total : 20.57%	1-2 @ 6.72% 2-3 @ 4.34% 1-3 @ 4.04% 0-1 @ 3.47% 0-2 @ 3.13% 2-4 @ 1.96% 0-3 @ 1.88% 1-4 @ 1.82% 3-4 @ 1.4% Other @ 4.33% Total : 33.09%