Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nigeria win with a probability of 46.52%. A draw had a probability of 27.92% and a win for Tunisia had a probability of 25.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nigeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.43%) and 2-1 (8.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.86%) , while for a Tunisia win it was 0-1 (9.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.