Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations | Group Stage

Dec 27, 2025 at 8pm UK

Nigeria
3 - 2
Tunisia

Osimhen (44'), Ndidi (50'), Lookman (67')
Osimhen (44'), Ajayi (56'), Nwabali (90+6')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Talbi (74'), Abdi (87' pen.)

Form, Standings, Stats

Nigeria

All competitions

This competition

Last Game: Nigeria 3-2 Tunisia
Saturday, December 27 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Next Game: Uganda vs. Nigeria
Tuesday, December 30 at 4pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Equatorial Guinea	3	6	7
2	Nigeria	3	2	7
3	Ivory Coast	3	-3	3
4	Guinea-Bissau	3	-5	0

Tunisia

All competitions

This competition

Last Game: Nigeria 3-2 Tunisia
Saturday, December 27 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Next Game: Tanzania vs. Tunisia
Tuesday, December 30 at 4pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mali	3	2	5
2	South Africa	3	2	4
3	Namibia	3	-3	4
4	Tunisia	3	-1	2

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nigeria win with a probability of 46.52%. A draw had a probability of 27.92% and a win for Tunisia had a probability of 25.55%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nigeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.43%) and 2-1 (8.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.86%) , while for a Tunisia win it was 0-1 (9.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.

Result
Nigeria	Draw	Tunisia
46.52% ( 0.45)	27.92% ( 0.2)	25.55% ( -0.66)

Both teams to score 44.09% (

-1.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

39.01% (

-1.04)

60.99% (

1.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.01% (

-0.79)

80.98% (

0.78)

Nigeria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.7% (

-0.25)

26.29% (

0.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.58% (

-0.34)

61.41% (

0.33)

Tunisia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.82% (

-1.17)

40.17% (

1.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.19% (

-1.09)

76.81% (

1.08)

Score Analysis

Nigeria 46.52%

Tunisia 25.55%

Draw 27.91%

Nigeria	Draw	Tunisia
1-0 @ 14.11% ( 0.45) 2-0 @ 9.43% ( 0.23) 2-1 @ 8.6% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 4.2% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 3.83% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 1.75% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 1.4% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.28% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.94% Total : 46.52%	1-1 @ 12.86% 0-0 @ 10.56% ( 0.41) 2-2 @ 3.92% ( -0.16) Other @ 0.57% Total : 27.91%	0-1 @ 9.63% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 5.87% ( -0.19) 0-2 @ 4.39% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 1.78% ( -0.12) 0-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.08) 2-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.09) Other @ 1.35% Total : 25.55%