Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pen-y-Bont win with a probability of 57.72%. A draw had a probability of 22.88% and a win for Cardiff MU had a probability of 19.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pen-y-Bont win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.42%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.93%) , while for a Cardiff MU win it was 0-1 (6.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.