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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 36.8%. A win for Barnsley had a probability of 36.17% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.05%) and 2-0 (6.48%). The likeliest Barnsley win was 0-1 (10.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Barnsley |
| 36.8% | 27.02% | 36.17% |
| Both teams to score 50.85% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.55% | 54.44% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.19% | 75.81% |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.5% | 28.5% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.73% | 64.27% |
| Barnsley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.12% | 28.88% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.25% | 64.75% |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County | Draw | Barnsley |
| 1-0 @ 10.33% 2-1 @ 8.05% 2-0 @ 6.48% 3-1 @ 3.37% 3-0 @ 2.71% 3-2 @ 2.09% 4-1 @ 1.06% Other @ 2.7% Total : 36.8% | 1-1 @ 12.83% 0-0 @ 8.23% 2-2 @ 5% Other @ 0.96% Total : 27.02% | 0-1 @ 10.22% 1-2 @ 7.97% 0-2 @ 6.35% 1-3 @ 3.3% 0-3 @ 2.63% 2-3 @ 2.07% 1-4 @ 1.03% Other @ 2.61% Total : 36.17% |