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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bournemouth win with a probability of 46%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 27.67% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bournemouth win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.05%) and 2-0 (8.53%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (8.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Bournemouth | Draw | Derby County |
| 46% | 26.33% | 27.67% |
| Both teams to score 50.04% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.88% | 54.12% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.46% | 75.54% |
| Bournemouth Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.52% | 23.48% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.5% | 57.5% |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.39% | 34.61% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.67% | 71.33% |
| Score Analysis |
| Bournemouth | Draw | Derby County |
| 1-0 @ 11.77% 2-1 @ 9.05% 2-0 @ 8.53% 3-1 @ 4.37% 3-0 @ 4.12% 3-2 @ 2.32% 4-1 @ 1.58% 4-0 @ 1.49% Other @ 2.76% Total : 46% | 1-1 @ 12.49% 0-0 @ 8.13% 2-2 @ 4.8% Other @ 0.9% Total : 26.32% | 0-1 @ 8.62% 1-2 @ 6.63% 0-2 @ 4.58% 1-3 @ 2.35% 2-3 @ 1.7% 0-3 @ 1.62% Other @ 2.18% Total : 27.67% |