Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County Under-21s win with a probability of 41.7%. A win for Sunderland Under-21s had a probability of 35.89% and a draw had a probability of 22.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.26%) and 2-0 (5.23%). The likeliest Sunderland Under-21s win was 1-2 (7.61%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood.