Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley U21 win with a probability of 56.89%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 24.12% and a draw had a probability of 18.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burnley U21 win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.62%) and 2-0 (5.94%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 1-2 (5.76%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.