Premier League 2 - Div 1 Gameweek 16
Feb 23, 2026 7.00pm
Turf Moor

Burnley U21 vs Derby County Under-21s - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Burnley U21

All competitions
Premier League 2 - Div 1
Last game
Feb 16, 2026 4.00pm
Everton U21s 2 - 2 Burnley U21
Goals scored
17
Top scorer
Vernon Masara

Derby County Under-21s

All competitions
Premier League 2 - Div 1
Last game
Feb 13, 2026 7.00pm
Derby U21s 0 - 0 Man City U21s
Goals scored
14
Top scorer
Justin Oguntolu

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Burnley U21 win with a probability of 57.48%. A win for Derby County Under-21s has a probability of 23.7% and a draw has a probability of 18.76%.

The most likely scoreline for a Burnley U21 win is 2-1 with a probability of 8.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 3-1 (6.76%) and 2-0 (5.72%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win is 1-2 (5.61%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (7.55%).

Result

Burnley U21 57.48%
Draw 18.76%
Derby County Under-21s 23.7%

Both Teams to Score: 

68.07% (-0.06)

Goals

Over 1.5 89.9% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 10.1% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 74.08% (-0.02)
Under 2.5 25.92% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 52.55%
Under 3.5 47.45%
Over 4.5 37.15% (-0.03)
Under 4.5 62.85% (+0.03)

First Half Winner

Burnley U21 46.52%
Draw 29.31%
Derby County Under-21s 24.18%

Team To Score First

Burnley U21 59.53%
No Goal 2.52%
Derby County Under-21s 37.95%

Corners

Over 8 68.22%
Equal 8 9.24%
Under 8 22.53% (-0.01)
Over 9 58.01%
Equal 9 10.21%
Under 9 31.78%
Over 10.5 47.58% (+0.01)
Under 10.5 52.42% (-0.01)

Burnley U21 Goals

Over 1.5 64.75% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 35.25% (+0.03)
Over 2.5 41.25% (-0.03)
Under 2.5 58.75% (+0.03)
Over 3.5 22.06% (-0.02)
Under 3.5 77.94% (+0.02)

Derby County Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5 60.05% (-0.02)
Under 0.5 39.95% (+0.02)
Over 1.5 33.9% (-0.01)
Under 1.5 66.1% (+0.01)
Over 2.5 15.42% (-0.01)
Under 2.5 84.58% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 5.29% (-0.01)
Under 3.5 94.71% (+0.01)

Score analysis

Burnley U21 57.49%
Draw 18.76%
Derby County Under-21s 23.7%
Burnley U21
2-1 @ 8.85%
3-1 @ 6.76%
2-0 @ 5.72%
3-0 @ 5.4%
1-0 @ 4.54% (+0.01)
3-2 @ 4.5%
Other @ 21.72% (-0.02)
Total : 57.49%
Draw
1-1 @ 7.55%
2-2 @ 5.82%
3-3 @ 2.53%
0-0 @ 2.52%
Other @ 0.34% (-0.01)
Total : 18.76%
Derby County Under-21s
1-2 @ 5.61%
2-3 @ 3.11%
0-1 @ 2.99%
1-3 @ 2.82%
0-2 @ 2.55%
0-3 @ 1.67%
Other @ 4.95%
Total : 23.7%