Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal Under-21s win with a probability of 55.95%. A win for Burnley U21 had a probability of 25.05% and a draw had a probability of 18.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Arsenal Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.59%) and 3-1 (6.19%). The likeliest Burnley U21 win was 1-2 (6.46%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.