Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United Under-21s win with a probability of 56.92%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 25.6% and a draw had a probability of 17.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.61%) and 2-0 (5.27%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 1-2 (6.08%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (6.82%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.