Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough Under-21s win with a probability of 40.76%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 35.84% and a draw had a probability of 23.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough Under-21s win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.75%) and 0-2 (5.36%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 2-1 (7.67%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.