Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cadiz win with a probability of 37.17%. A win for Sporting Gijon had a probability of 34.58% and a draw had a probability of 28.25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cadiz win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.93%) and 2-0 (6.49%). The likeliest Sporting Gijon win was 0-1 (10.77%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.