Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 53.39%. A draw had a probability of 23.61% and a win for FC Utrecht had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 10.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.82%) and 2-0 (8.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.17%) , while for a FC Utrecht win it was 0-1 (5.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.