NEC
Eredivisie | Gameweek 17
Dec 20, 2025 at 7pm UK
 
Ajax

NijmegenNEC
vs.
Ajax

Coverage of the Eredivisie Europa Playoffs Regular Season clash between NEC and Ajax.

Form, Standings, Stats

NEC

All competitions
Eredivisie
Last Game: AFC 1-3 Nijmegen
Tuesday, December 16 at 7pm in KNVB Beker

Ajax

All competitions
Eredivisie
Last Game: Excelsior Maassluis 2-7 Ajax
Wednesday, December 17 at 5.45pm in KNVB Beker

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Ajax win with a probability of 45.06%. A win for NEC has a probability of 33.34% and a draw has a probability of 21.59%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ajax win is 1-2 with a probability of 8.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-3 (5.57%) and 0-1 (5.17%). The likeliest NEC win is 2-1 (7.23%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (8.65%).

Result
NECDrawAjax
33.34% (-8.324 -8.32)21.59% (-1.08 -1.08)45.06% (9.399 9.4)
Both teams to score 69.84% (3.492 3.49)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
70.38% (4.816 4.82)29.61% (-4.821 -4.82)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
49.27% (5.628 5.63)50.72% (-5.632 -5.63)
NEC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.23% (-1.571 -1.57)18.77% (1.567 1.57)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.82% (-2.695 -2.7)50.17% (2.691 2.69)
Ajax Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.98% (5.845 5.85)14.02% (-5.849 -5.85)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.43% (10.409 10.41)41.56% (-10.414 -10.41)
Score Analysis
    NEC 33.34%
    Ajax 45.06%
    Draw 21.59%
NECDrawAjax
2-1 @ 7.23% (-1.322 -1.32)
1-0 @ 4.4% (-1.613 -1.61)
3-1 @ 4.03% (-0.986 -0.99)
3-2 @ 3.96% (-0.093 -0.09)
2-0 @ 3.68% (-1.612 -1.61)
3-0 @ 2.05% (-1.053 -1.05)
4-1 @ 1.69% (-0.522 -0.52)
4-2 @ 1.66% (-0.127 -0.13)
4-3 @ 1.09% (0.124 0.12)
Other @ 3.54%
Total : 33.34%
1-1 @ 8.65% (-1.072 -1.07)
2-2 @ 7.11% (0.194 0.19)
0-0 @ 2.63% (-0.786 -0.79)
3-3 @ 2.6% (0.411 0.41)
Other @ 0.61%
Total : 21.59%
1-2 @ 8.5% (0.641 0.64)
1-3 @ 5.57% (1.333 1.33)
0-1 @ 5.17% (-0.353 -0.35)
0-2 @ 5.08% (0.616 0.62)
2-3 @ 4.66% (0.931 0.93)
0-3 @ 3.33% (0.922 0.92)
1-4 @ 2.73% (1.023 1.02)
2-4 @ 2.29% (0.781 0.78)
0-4 @ 1.63% (0.663 0.66)
3-4 @ 1.28% (0.392 0.39)
1-5 @ 1.07% (0.521 0.52)
Other @ 3.77%
Total : 45.06%

Head to Head
May 11, 2025 3.45pm
gameweek 32
Ajax
0-3
Nijmegen

Gaaei (30'), Fitz-Jim (64'), Berghuis (90+3')
Hansen (59'), Pereira (67'), Ouaissa (82')
Marquez (27'), van Crooij (37'), Pereira (38'), Verdonk (69')
> Preview
Dec 1, 2024 3.45pm
gameweek 14
Nijmegen
1-2
Ajax
Hansen (13')
Sano (90+3')
Weghorst (15', 48')
Rensch (31'), Weghorst (51'), Gaaei (69'), Hato (74'), Kaplan (90')
> Preview
Feb 18, 2024 1.30pm
gameweek 22
Ajax
2-2
Nijmegen
Brobbey (7'), Borges (79')
Brobbey (67'), Hlynsson (87')
Hato (61' og.), Rober (90+5')
> Preview
Dec 3, 2023 1.30pm
gameweek 14
Nijmegen
1-2
Ajax
Tavsan (90')
Hlynsson (57'), Borges (88')
> Preview
Mar 5, 2023 3.45pm
gameweek 24
Ajax
1-0
Nijmegen
Kudus (52')
> Preview