Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 43.94%. A win for FC Volendam had a probability of 33.63% and a draw had a probability of 22.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.03%) and 0-2 (5.52%). The likeliest FC Volendam win was 2-1 (7.55%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.