KNVB Beker | Round 2
Dec 17, 2025 at 5.45pm UK
 
Ajax

Excelsior MaassluisExcelsior Maassluis
2-7
Ajax

Plank (53'), Verbont (60')
FT(HT: 0-4)
Gaaei (19'), Christoffel Annum-Assamoah Konadu (24'), Wijndal (12'), Mokio (40', 48'), Bounida (56'), Moro (65')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's KNVB Beker clash between Excelsior Maassluis and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Excelsior Maassluis

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Last Game: Excelsior Maassluis 2-7 Ajax
Wednesday, December 17 at 5.45pm in KNVB Beker
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Ajax

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Last Game: Excelsior Maassluis 2-7 Ajax
Wednesday, December 17 at 5.45pm in KNVB Beker
Next Game: Nijmegen vs. Ajax
Saturday, December 20 at 7pm in Eredivisie
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 54.92%. A win for Excelsior Maassluis had a probability of 23.24% and a draw had a probability of 21.84%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.21%) and 0-2 (8.07%). The likeliest Excelsior Maassluis win was 2-1 (6.01%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-7 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.

Result
Excelsior MaassluisDrawAjax
23.24% (1.037 1.04)21.84% (0.251 0.25)54.92% (-1.287 -1.29)
Both teams to score 60.36% (0.533 0.53)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.5% (0.064 0.06)38.5% (-0.062999999999995 -0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.2% (0.068000000000005 0.07)60.79% (-0.065999999999995 -0.07)
Excelsior Maassluis Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.19% (0.92399999999999 0.92)29.81% (-0.923 -0.92)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.11% (1.103 1.1)65.88% (-1.102 -1.1)
Ajax Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.99% (-0.377 -0.38)14.01% (0.378 0.38)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.45% (-0.75 -0.75)41.55% (0.751 0.75)
Score Analysis
    Excelsior Maassluis 23.24%
    Ajax 54.92%
    Draw 21.84%
Excelsior MaassluisDrawAjax
2-1 @ 6.01% (0.202 0.2)
1-0 @ 5.06% (0.112 0.11)
2-0 @ 3.06% (0.144 0.14)
3-1 @ 2.43% (0.14 0.14)
3-2 @ 2.38% (0.106 0.11)
3-0 @ 1.23% (0.087 0.09)
Other @ 3.07%
Total : 23.24%
1-1 @ 9.94% (0.085000000000001 0.09)
2-2 @ 5.91% (0.119 0.12)
0-0 @ 4.18% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.56% (0.049 0.05)
Other @ 0.26%
Total : 21.84%
1-2 @ 9.76% (-0.051 -0.05)
0-1 @ 8.21% (-0.139 -0.14)
0-2 @ 8.07% (-0.252 -0.25)
1-3 @ 6.4% (-0.124 -0.12)
0-3 @ 5.28% (-0.242 -0.24)
2-3 @ 3.87% (0.025 0.02)
1-4 @ 3.14% (-0.106 -0.11)
0-4 @ 2.6% (-0.156 -0.16)
2-4 @ 1.9% (-0.014 -0.01)
1-5 @ 1.24% (-0.059 -0.06)
0-5 @ 1.02% (-0.077 -0.08)
Other @ 3.44%
Total : 54.92%