Preview: Mainz 05 vs Samsunspor - prediction, team news, lineups

Two teams level on points and aiming to secure automatic last-16 qualification in the Conference League square off at the Mewa Arena on Thursday night, as Mainz 05 play host to Samsunspor.

The 05ers and the Red Lightning know that victory here would guarantee a top-eight finish and see them avoid entering the knockout playoff round.

Match preview

Since the dismissal of Bo Henriksen, new Mainz head coach Urs Fischer has overseen back-to-back draws in his first two matches in charge, with an admirable point collected against the mighty Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga last Sunday.

The 05ers were on course to end Bayern’s unbeaten league record and claim a historic win at the Allianz Arena, as they were leading 2-1 with just three minutes of normal time remaining. However, goal machine Harry Kane restored parity from the penalty spot to salvage a draw.

Sitting rock bottom of the Bundesliga table and six points adrift of safety, Mainz also let a one-goal lead slip on matchday five of the Conference League, as they had to settle for a 1-1 draw with Lech Poznan, playing the final 25 minutes with 10 men following Nikolas Veratschnig’s sending off.

Nevertheless, Mainz remain firmly in contention to reach the knockout rounds of a major European competition for the first time and currently sit eighth in the 36-team standings, with another draw on Thursday potentially enough to secure automatic last-16 qualification if other results go their way.

The 05ers have reason to be optimistic of success against Samsunspor, as their three victories from 11 home matches this season have all come in the Conference League, beating Rosenberg 4-1 in the playoff round before winning 1-0 and 2-1 against Zrinjski and Fiorentina respectively in the League Phase.

Of the 10 Conference League teams celebrating their debut at this stage of a European competition, only two of those - Samsunspor and Rayo Vallecano - have already secured their place in the knockout rounds, but last-16 qualification is now the target for Thomas Reis’s side.

The Turkish outfit missed the chance to automatically qualify with a game to spare after they lost 2-1 at home to AEK Athens on matchday five, having previously collected 10 points from their opening four League Phase matches (W3 D1).

Only AEK Athens (11) have scored more goals in this season’s Conference League than Samsunspor (10), who have been one of the surprise packages and occupy fifth position. Like Mainz, a draw on Thursday could be enough to seal a last-16 spot if other results go their way.

Reis is familiar with Thursday’s opponents Mainz, as he has faced them more than any other team in his senior managerial career, winning five and losing two of his seven encounters across spells in charge of German clubs VfL Bochum and Schalke 04.

The 52-year-old is now tasked with ending Samsunspor’s six-game winless run in all competitions (D3 L3), including a 2-0 defeat to Istanbul Basaksehir in the Turkish Super Lig on Sunday, which has seen them slip to sixth in the table and four points behind the European places.

Mainz 05 Conference League form:

Mainz 05 form (all competitions):

Samsunspor Conference League form:

Samsunspor form (all competitions):

Team News

Mainz will have to cope without Anthony Caci (hamstring), Maxim Dal (knee), Maxim Leitsch (thigh), Phillipp Mwene and Robin Zentner (both groin) due to injury, while Sota Kawasaki (thigh), Silvan Widmer (calf) and Nadiem Amiri (muscle) are all doubtful and will be assess ahead of kickoff.

Veratschnig is suspended following his dismissal on matchday five, so Lee Jae-sung may be required to fill in a left wing-back, with Arnaud Nordin or Kawasaki - if fit - operating on the opposite flank.

Benedict Hollerbach has only scored one goal in 16 appearances this season, but he is expected to continue to lead the line, with William Boving and Paul Nebel likely to provide support in the final third.

As for Samsunspor, Afonso Sousa (ankle) and Bedirhan Cetin (knee) remain sidelined through injury, while Celil Yuksel is still suspended following his involvement in the high-profile Turkish betting scandal.

Cherif Ndiaye is now away on international duty with Senegal at the Africa Cup of Nation, so Marius Mouandilmadji - who has scored four goals in five Conference League games this term - is set to start up front.

Carlo Holse has scored a team-high seven goals in all competitions this season and is expected to continue in an advanced midfield position next to Olivier Ntcham, with Emre Kilinc and Anthony Musaba potentially taking up wide roles.

Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:

Batz; Da Costa, Bell, Potulski; Nordin, Maloney, Sano, Lee; Nebel, Boving; Hollerbach

Samsunspor possible starting lineup:

Kocuk; Yavru, Satka, Van Drongelen, Gonul; Makoumbou; Kilinc, Holse, Ntcham, Musaba; Mouandilmadji

We say: Mainz 05 1-1 Samsunspor

Samsunspor will back themselves to claim a positive result in Germany, as they have only lost one of their last eight away matches in all competitions (W3 D4), scoring 16 goals in the process.

Mainz have struggled on the domestic front this season, but there have been encouraging signs since Fischer’s arrival and they may just do enough on this occasion to claim a share of the spoils, which could be enough for both teams to make the last 16.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.