Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 47.38%. A win for Santa Clara had a probability of 27.33% and a draw had a probability of 25.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.33%) and 0-2 (8.36%). The likeliest Santa Clara win was 1-0 (7.74%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.