Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Legia Warsaw win with a probability of 61.03%. A draw had a probability of 20.27% and a win for Lincoln Red Imps had a probability of 18.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Legia Warsaw win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.01%) and 1-0 (8.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.27%) , while for a Lincoln Red Imps win it was 1-2 (5.08%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.