Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burgos win with a probability of 37.26%. A win for Getafe had a probability of 32.02% and a draw had a probability of 30.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burgos win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.46%) and 2-1 (7.12%). The likeliest Getafe win was 0-1 (12.8%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.5%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.