Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qarabag FK win with a probability of 43.81%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 32.49% and a draw had a probability of 23.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Qarabag FK win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.64%) and 2-0 (6.39%). The likeliest Ajax win was 1-2 (7.63%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.