Champions League
Dec 10, 2025 5.45pm
2
4
HT : 1 1
FT
  • Camilo Andres Durán Marquez 10' goal
  • Matheus Silva 47' goal
  • goal Kasper Dolberg 39'
  • yellowcard Youri Baas 45'+1'
  • goal Oscar Gluh 79'
  • goal Anton Gaaei 82'
  • goal Oscar Gluh 90'

Qarabag FK vs Ajax - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Qarabag FK

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Nov 25, 2025 8.00pm
Napoli 2 - 0 Qarabag

Ajax

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Nov 25, 2025 5.45pm
Ajax 0 - 2 Benfica

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qarabag FK win with a probability of 43.81%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 32.49% and a draw had a probability of 23.69%.

The most likely scoreline for a Qarabag FK win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.64%) and 2-0 (6.39%). The likeliest Ajax win was 1-2 (7.63%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.

Result

Qarabag FK 43.81%
Draw 23.69%
Ajax 32.49%

Both Teams to Score: 

61.49%

Goals

Over 2.5 59.62%
Under 2.5 40.37%
Over 3.5 37.25%
Under 3.5 62.75%
Over 4.5 19.97%
Under 4.5 80.03%

Qarabag FK Goals

Over 0.5 81.26%
Under 0.5 18.73%
Over 1.5 49.88%
Under 1.5 50.11%

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5 75.66%
Under 0.5 24.33%
Over 1.5 41.28%
Under 1.5 58.72%

Score analysis

Qarabag FK 43.81%
Draw 23.69%
Ajax 32.49%
Qarabag FK
2-1 @ 9.04%
1-0 @ 7.64%
2-0 @ 6.39%
3-1 @ 5.04%
3-0 @ 3.57%
3-2 @ 3.57%
4-1 @ 2.11%
4-0 @ 1.49%
4-2 @ 1.49%
Other @ 3.47%
Total : 43.81%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.79%
2-2 @ 6.39%
0-0 @ 4.56%
3-3 @ 1.68%
Other @ 0.27%
Total : 23.69%
Ajax
1-2 @ 7.63%
0-1 @ 6.44%
0-2 @ 4.55%
1-3 @ 3.59%
2-3 @ 3.01%
0-3 @ 2.15%
1-4 @ 1.27%
2-4 @ 1.06%
Other @ 2.79%
Total : 32.49%

Head to Head

Europa League
Oct 24, 2024 5.45pm
0
3
HT : 0 1
FT Tofiq Bahramov adina Respublika stadionu (Baki (Baku))
  • Julio Romao 15' redcard
  • Elvin Cafarquliyev 15' yellowcard
  • Abbas Huseynov 22' yellowcard
  • Yassine Benzia 45'+4' yellowcard
  • Kevin Medina 73' yellowcard
  • Elvin Cafarquliyev 79' redcard
  • Marko Jankovic 81' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Kenneth Taylor 20'
  • goal Kenneth Taylor 36'
  • yellowcard Kian Fitz-Jim 45'+1'
  • goal Wout Weghorst 74'
  • goal Chuba Akpom 77'