Preview: Qarabag FK vs. Ajax - prediction, team news, lineups

Aiming to end their five-match winless run against Dutch teams in Europe, Qarabag FK welcome Ajax to the Tofiq Bahramov Republican Stadium for Wednesday’s matchday six in the Champions League.

The Azerbaijani side’s only loss in their previous nine matches came at Napoli in late November, and they seek to avoid back-to-back European defeats against opponents who have managed to win two consecutively following a poor run.

Match preview

In only their second-ever appearance in the Champions League proper, Qarabag could finish the league phase among the teams with a chance of reaching the last 16.

After five matchdays, Gurban Gurbanov’s team sit 19th in the 36-team table with seven points, level with European giants Barcelona in 18th and only three points adrift of the coveted top-eight spots.

Those positions guarantee automatic participation in the round of 16, a prospect few believed possible for the Horsemen at the beginning of the league phase.

While nothing is guaranteed, the Azerbaijani giants remain in contention for a dream run to the last 16, an ambition strengthened by a 10-match unbeaten streak in Baku across all competitions, including two in Europe’s premier club competition.

Having defeated Copenhagen 2-0 at the start of October, Gurbanov’s men then held Chelsea to a 2-2 draw a month later, a match in which the Blues were favoured for a comfortable victory.

Currently poised to advance to the knockout phase playoffs as one of the unseeded teams, maximum points in Baku this week could lift Qarabag into the positions between ninth and 16th, which would make them seeded in the knockout playoffs — an achievement unanticipated months ago.

The hosts will surely back themselves for another positive home result, especially against Ajax, despite their 3-0 loss to the Dutch side in the Europa League last season.

Much has changed at both clubs since then, particularly in Amsterdam, where Francesco Farioli has departed and Johnny Heitinga’s return was brief.

Heitinga was dismissed after matchday five’s 3-0 home defeat by Galatasaray, while Fred Grim’s interim spell began with three further defeats, including another Champions League loss in Amsterdam, this time 2-0 to Benfica.

Ajax’s four-match losing run has been followed by two Eredivisie victories, beating Groningen 2-0 and Fortuna Sittard 3-1; however, these wins do not accurately reflect the matches’ flow.

Grim’s team defeated Groningen in Amsterdam last Tuesday after the visitors failed to convert good goalscoring opportunities before Ajax won 2-0, and the 3-1 weekend victory at Sittard was even less deserved.

In a match where both sides were reduced to 10 men, Ajax benefitted from two own goals in a contest where they were outshot 26-13 and lost the expected goals (xG) battle: 2.72-1.01.

Despite these unconvincing results, they travel to Baku aiming for a third consecutive win and their first Champions League victory of the season, keen to end an eight-match losing streak in Europe.

This ongoing run is the club’s most extended European losing sequence in their history, and they hope for maximum points at the sixth attempt this term, which should lift them off the bottom of the 36-team phase.

Qarabag FK Champions League form:

Qarabag FK form (all competitions):

Ajax Champions League form:

Ajax form (all competitions):

Team News

Kady Borges is Qarabag’s sole expected injury absentee, with the midfielder out since the draw with Chelsea last month.

Leandro Andrade has scored three of the Horsemen’s eight Champions League goals, accounting for 37.5% of the Azerbaijani club’s total in the first five matchdays.

Interestingly, two of Andrade's goals came away from home against Benfica and Athletic Club, and he is hoping to add to his effort against Chelsea.

Matheus Silva and Kevin Medina are one booking away from a suspension for the hosts, with Silva avoiding a card in the Napoli defeat, against whom Medina was booked.

Wout Weghorst — also a booking from suspension, along with Youri Baas — was withdrawn before the half-hour against Fortuna, suggesting the forward may miss out on Wednesday; Kasper Dolberg could start if Weghorst is unable to play.

If Weghorst (ankle) is absent, he would join Steven Berghuis (groin) and Branco van den Boomen (back) on the injured list.

Kenneth Taylor (knock) will be assessed before the matchday six encounter in Baku, while Josip Sutalo’s fitness is also in question.

Although Mika Godts has scored once in the last four games in all competitions, he remains Ajax’s leading attacking threat this season with 11 goal involvements.

However, Godts has yet to score or assist in Europe this term, with Weghorst netting De Joden’s only goal in the 5-1 defeat by Chelsea in October.

Qarabag FK possible starting lineup:

Kochalski; Silva, Mustafazade, Medina, Jafarguliyev; Bicalho, Jankovic; Andrade, Zoubir, Addai; Duran

Ajax possible starting lineup:

Jaros; Gaaei, Itakura, Baas, Wijndal; Klaassen, Gloukh, Taylor; Bounida, Dolberg, Godts

We say: Qarabag FK 2-1 Ajax

Ajax must raise their level in Baku to avoid reverting to old problems.

However, we predict disappointment at Qarabag on Wednesday, with the hosts expected to end their winless streak against Dutch teams and prolong the away side's disappointing European season.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.