Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 45.32%. A win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 32.62% and a draw had a probability of 22.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.79%) and 3-1 (5.55%). The likeliest Sparta Rotterdam win was 1-2 (7.32%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.