Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Feyenoord win with a probability of 46.07%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 30.97% and a draw had a probability of 22.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Feyenoord win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.13%) and 0-2 (6.38%). The likeliest Ajax win was 2-1 (7.32%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.