Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genk win with a probability of 45.56%. A win for FC Utrecht had a probability of 32.15% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genk win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.94%) and 0-2 (6.8%). The likeliest FC Utrecht win was 1-0 (7.41%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.41%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.