Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genk win with a probability of 41.49%. A win for Club Brugge had a probability of 34.55% and a draw had a probability of 23.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genk win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.56%) and 2-0 (6.08%). The likeliest Club Brugge win was 1-2 (7.94%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.95%). The actual scoreline of 3-5 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.