Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Charleroi win with a probability of 38.19%. A win for Genk had a probability of 37.18% and a draw had a probability of 24.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Charleroi win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.88%) and 2-0 (5.82%). The likeliest Genk win was 1-2 (8.33%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.