Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genk win with a probability of 48.16%. A win for Puskas Academy had a probability of 28.05% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genk win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.82%) and 2-0 (7.27%). The likeliest Puskas Academy win was 1-2 (6.75%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.