League One

League One | Gameweek 22

Dec 17, 2022 at 3pm UK

Pride Park Stadium

Derby
4 - 0
Forest Green

Mendez-Laing (5'), McGoldrick (21', 69', 87')

FT(HT: 2-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Derby County and Forest Green Rovers, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Burton Albion 1-1 Derby
Saturday, December 10 at 2pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Forest Green Rovers

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Forest Green 1-0 Cheltenham
Saturday, December 10 at 2pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 60.72%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Forest Green Rovers had a probability of 18.49%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.53%) and 1-0 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.67%), while for a Forest Green Rovers win it was 1-2 (5.04%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Forest Green Rovers
60.72% ( 0.02)	20.78% ( -0.17)	18.49% ( 0.14)

Both teams to score 56.47% (

0.86)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.86% (

1.01)

40.14% (

-1.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.49% (

1.03)

62.5% (

-1.04)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.2% (

0.32)

12.8% (

-0.32)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

60.89% (

0.66)

39.1% (

-0.67)

Forest Green Rovers Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.76% (

0.75)

35.24% (

-0.76)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28% (

0.78)

71.99% (

-0.78)

Score Analysis

Derby County 60.72%

Forest Green Rovers 18.49%

Draw 20.78%

Derby County	Draw	Forest Green Rovers
2-1 @ 9.94% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.53% ( -0.21) 1-0 @ 9.27% ( -0.32) 3-1 @ 6.81% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 6.53% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 3.55% ( 0.11) 4-1 @ 3.5% ( 0.08) 4-0 @ 3.36% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.83% ( 0.08) 5-1 @ 1.44% ( 0.05) 5-0 @ 1.38% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.58% Total : 60.72%	1-1 @ 9.67% ( -0.13) 2-2 @ 5.19% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 4.51% ( -0.21) 3-3 @ 1.24% ( 0.06) Other @ 0.18% Total : 20.78%	1-2 @ 5.04% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 4.7% ( -0.12) 0-2 @ 2.45% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.8% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 1.75% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.74% Total : 18.49%