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Nathaniel Mendez-Laing
5'
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David McGoldrick
21'
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David McGoldrick
69'
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David McGoldrick
87'
Derby County vs Forest Green Rovers - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
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Form, Standings, Stats
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 60.72%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Forest Green Rovers had a probability of 18.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.53%) and 1-0 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.67%), while for a Forest Green Rovers win it was 1-2 (5.04%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
Result
Both Teams to Score:
Goals
Derby County Goals
Forest Green Rovers Goals
Score analysis
2-0 @ 9.53% ▼ (-0.22)
1-0 @ 9.27% ▼ (-0.33)
3-1 @ 6.81% ▲ (+0.08)
3-0 @ 6.53% ▼ (-0.07)
3-2 @ 3.55% ▲ (+0.11)
4-1 @ 3.5% ▲ (+0.09)
4-0 @ 3.36% ▲ (+0.01)
4-2 @ 1.83% ▲ (+0.08)
5-1 @ 1.44% ▲ (+0.06)
5-0 @ 1.38% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 3.58%
Total : 60.72%
2-2 @ 5.19% ▲ (+0.10)
0-0 @ 4.51% ▼ (-0.22)
3-3 @ 1.24% ▲ (+0.07)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 20.78%
0-1 @ 4.7% ▼ (-0.13)
0-2 @ 2.45% ▼ (-0.02)
2-3 @ 1.8% ▲ (+0.08)
1-3 @ 1.75% ▲ (+0.05)
Other @ 2.74%
Total : 18.49%