FA Cup

FA Cup | Second Round

Nov 27, 2022 at 3.15pm UK

Rodney Parade

Newport
1 - 2
Derby

Farquharson (41')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Sibley (54'), McGoldrick (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's FA Cup clash between Newport County and TBC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Newport County

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: MK Dons 3-1 Newport
Tuesday, November 22 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

Goals
for

Top scorers

Derby County

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Portsmouth 0-0 Derby
Friday, November 18 at 8pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 39.74%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 33.01% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.36%) and 2-0 (7.24%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (9.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.

Result
Newport County	Draw	Derby County
39.74% ( 0.92)	27.25% ( 0.45)	33.01% ( -1.37)

Both teams to score 49.71% (

-1.68)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.3% (

-2)

55.7% (

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.15% (

-1.66)

76.84% (

1.66)

Newport County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.59% (

-0.43)

27.4% (

0.43)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.12% (

-0.56)

62.88% (

0.56)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.48% (

-1.9)

31.52% (

1.9)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.08% (

-2.26)

67.91% (

2.26)

Score Analysis

Newport County 39.73%

Derby County 33.01%

Draw 27.25%

Newport County	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 11.18% ( 0.72) 2-1 @ 8.36% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.24% ( 0.38) 3-1 @ 3.61% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 3.12% ( 0.13) 3-2 @ 2.08% ( -0.14) 4-1 @ 1.17% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 1.01% ( 0.03) Other @ 1.97% Total : 39.73%	1-1 @ 12.91% ( 0.18) 0-0 @ 8.64% ( 0.65) 2-2 @ 4.82% ( -0.25) Other @ 0.88% Total : 27.25%	0-1 @ 9.97% ( 0.25) 1-2 @ 7.45% ( -0.3) 0-2 @ 5.76% ( -0.16) 1-3 @ 2.87% ( -0.28) 0-3 @ 2.22% ( -0.18) 2-3 @ 1.86% ( -0.2) Other @ 2.89% Total : 33.01%