Home > Football > League Two
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 55.32%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Gillingham had a probability of 19.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.27%) and 2-1 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.74%), while for a Gillingham win it was 0-1 (7.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.
Result | ||
Newport County | Draw | Gillingham |
55.32% ( -0.17) | 25.18% ( -0.21) | 19.5% ( 0.38) |
Both teams to score 44.67% ( 1.09) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.28% ( 1.15) | 56.72% ( -1.15) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.33% ( 0.91) | 77.67% ( -0.91) |
Newport County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.49% ( 0.39) | 20.51% ( -0.39) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47% ( 0.61) | 53% ( -0.61) |
Gillingham Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
56.2% ( 1.11) | 43.8% ( -1.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
20.04% ( 0.9) | 79.96% ( -0.9) |
Score Analysis |
Newport County | Draw | Gillingham |
1-0 @ 14.23% ( -0.46) 2-0 @ 11.27% ( -0.23) 2-1 @ 9.31% ( 0.1) 3-0 @ 5.95% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 4.92% ( 0.11) 4-0 @ 2.36% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.03% ( 0.11) 4-1 @ 1.95% ( 0.07) Other @ 3.3% Total : 55.31% | 1-1 @ 11.74% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 8.98% ( -0.4) 2-2 @ 3.84% ( 0.16) Other @ 0.61% Total : 25.17% | 0-1 @ 7.42% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 4.85% ( 0.14) 0-2 @ 3.06% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 1.34% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 1.06% ( 0.07) Other @ 1.78% Total : 19.5% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Stockport CountyStockport | 45 | 27 | 11 | 7 | 95 | 46 | 49 | 92 |
P | Mansfield TownMansfield | 45 | 24 | 13 | 8 | 89 | 46 | 43 | 85 |
P | Wrexham | 45 | 25 | 10 | 10 | 87 | 51 | 36 | 85 |
4 | MK Dons | 45 | 23 | 8 | 14 | 79 | 64 | 15 | 77 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 45 | 19 | 13 | 13 | 68 | 64 | 4 | 70 |
6 | BarrowBarrow | 44 | 18 | 14 | 12 | 60 | 53 | 7 | 68 |
7 | Crawley TownCrawley | 45 | 20 | 7 | 18 | 71 | 67 | 4 | 67 |
8 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 44 | 20 | 7 | 17 | 67 | 65 | 2 | 67 |
9 | Walsall | 45 | 18 | 11 | 16 | 68 | 68 | 0 | 65 |
10 | Bradford CityBradford | 44 | 17 | 12 | 15 | 55 | 57 | -2 | 63 |
11 | Gillingham | 45 | 18 | 9 | 18 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 63 |
12 | AFC Wimbledon | 45 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 59 | 50 | 9 | 62 |
13 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 45 | 17 | 11 | 17 | 58 | 67 | -9 | 62 |
14 | Notts County | 45 | 18 | 7 | 20 | 89 | 85 | 4 | 61 |
15 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 45 | 17 | 6 | 22 | 66 | 66 | 0 | 57 |
16 | Morecambe | 45 | 17 | 9 | 19 | 64 | 78 | -14 | 57 |
17 | Newport CountyNewport | 45 | 16 | 7 | 22 | 61 | 72 | -11 | 55 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 45 | 15 | 9 | 21 | 59 | 70 | -11 | 54 |
19 | Swindon TownSwindon | 45 | 14 | 11 | 20 | 74 | 80 | -6 | 53 |
20 | Salford City | 45 | 13 | 11 | 21 | 64 | 80 | -16 | 50 |
21 | Grimsby Town | 45 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 57 | 72 | -15 | 49 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 44 | 11 | 11 | 22 | 57 | 75 | -18 | 44 |
23 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 45 | 9 | 14 | 22 | 55 | 80 | -25 | 41 |
R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 45 | 10 | 9 | 26 | 43 | 78 | -35 | 39 |
> League Two Full Table |