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FA Cup

Newport County
FA Cup | First Round
Nov 5, 2022 at 3pm UK
Rodney Parade
Colchester United

Newport
2 - 0
Colchester

O'Hara (28' og.), Lewis (76')
FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Newport County and Colchester United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Newport County

All competitions
Last Game: Northampton 1-1 Newport
Saturday, October 29 at 2pm in League Two

Colchester United

All competitions
Last Game: Barrow 3-1 Colchester
Tuesday, November 1 at 7.45pm in League Two

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 55.29%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Colchester United had a probability of 19.75%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.1%) and 2-1 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.7%), while for a Colchester United win it was 0-1 (7.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.

Result
Newport CountyDrawColchester United
55.29% (-0.111 -0.11)24.96% (0.052 0.05)19.75% (0.059000000000001 0.06)
Both teams to score 45.62% (-0.048999999999999 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.34% (-0.116 -0.12)55.65% (0.113 0.11)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.19% (-0.093 -0.09)76.81% (0.093000000000004 0.09)
Newport County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.9% (-0.088999999999999 -0.09)20.1% (0.087 0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.65% (-0.143 -0.14)52.35% (0.142 0.14)
Colchester United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.09% (0.00099999999999767 0)42.91% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.79%79.21% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)
Score Analysis
    Newport County 55.29%
    Colchester United 19.75%
    Draw 24.95%
Newport CountyDrawColchester United
1-0 @ 13.83% (0.02 0.02)
2-0 @ 11.1% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.39% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
3-0 @ 5.94% (-0.023 -0.02)
3-1 @ 5.02% (-0.02 -0.02)
4-0 @ 2.38% (-0.016 -0.02)
3-2 @ 2.13% (-0.008 -0.01)
4-1 @ 2.02% (-0.013 -0.01)
Other @ 3.48%
Total : 55.29%
1-1 @ 11.7% (0.02 0.02)
0-0 @ 8.62% (0.038 0.04)
2-2 @ 3.97% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 0.65%
Total : 24.95%
0-1 @ 7.3% (0.032 0.03)
1-2 @ 4.95% (0.008 0.01)
0-2 @ 3.09% (0.013 0.01)
1-3 @ 1.4% (0.002 0)
2-3 @ 1.12% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 1.89%
Total : 19.75%

How you voted: Newport vs Colchester

Newport County
57.1%
Draw
14.3%
Colchester United
28.6%
7
Head to Head
Oct 22, 2022 3pm
Newport
1-0
Colchester
Evans (7')
Apr 22, 2022 7.45pm
Newport
1-2
Colchester
Telford (40')
Dolan (38'), Lewis (45+2'), Bennett (72')
Akinde (68'), Chilvers (77')
Wiredu (45+2'), Huws (66'), Skuse (89'), George (90')
Nov 26, 2021 7.45pm
Colchester
1-1
Newport
Sears (78')
Chilvers (25')
Telford (36')
Clarke (29'), Cooper (74')
Mar 6, 2021 3pm
Colchester
0-2
Newport

Harriott (25'), Nouble (74'), Clampin (78')
Nouble (76')
Labadie (30'), Amond (78')
Labadie (51')
Oct 27, 2020 7pm
Newport
2-1
Colchester
Twine (51'), Amond (90+1')
Labadie (28')
Brown (89')
Harriott (29'), Stevenson (34')
rhs 2.0


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