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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 37.35%. A win for Colchester United had a probability of 35.01% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.99%) and 2-0 (6.8%). The likeliest Colchester United win was 0-1 (10.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newport County | Draw | Colchester United |
| 37.35% | 27.65% | 35.01% |
| Both teams to score 48.83% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.05% | 56.95% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.14% | 77.86% |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.61% | 29.39% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.62% | 65.38% |
| Colchester United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.16% | 30.84% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.88% | 67.12% |
| Score Analysis |
| Newport County | Draw | Colchester United |
| 1-0 @ 11.1% 2-1 @ 7.99% 2-0 @ 6.8% 3-1 @ 3.26% 3-0 @ 2.77% 3-2 @ 1.92% 4-1 @ 1% Other @ 2.5% Total : 37.35% | 1-1 @ 13.05% 0-0 @ 9.07% 2-2 @ 4.7% Other @ 0.82% Total : 27.64% | 0-1 @ 10.66% 1-2 @ 7.68% 0-2 @ 6.27% 1-3 @ 3.01% 0-3 @ 2.46% 2-3 @ 1.84% Other @ 3.08% Total : 35% |