League One Gameweek 21
Burton Albion
Dec 10, 2022 2.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 1
FT Pirelli Stadium
Derby
  • Victor Adeboyejo 79' goal
  • goal James Collins 23'

Burton Albion vs Derby County - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Burton Albion

All competitions
Last game
Dec 3, 2022 12.30pm
MK Dons 1 - 1 Burton Albion
Goals scored
57
Top scorer
Victor Adeboyejo

Derby County

All competitions
Last game
Dec 3, 2022 12.30pm
Derby 0 - 0 Sheff Weds
Goals scored
67
Top scorer
David McGoldrick

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 44.79%. A win for Burton Albion had a probability of 30.01% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.16%) and 0-2 (7.57%). The likeliest Burton Albion win was 1-0 (7.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.

Result

Burton Albion 30.01% ▼ (-0.61)
Draw 25.2% ▲ (+0.07)
Derby County 44.79% ▲ (+0.54)

Both Teams to Score: 

55.02% ▼ (-0.55)

Goals

Over 2.5 51.68% ▼ (-0.57)
Under 2.5 48.32% ▲ (+0.57)
Over 3.5 29.54% ▼ (-0.52)
Under 3.5 70.47% ▲ (+0.53)

Burton Albion Goals

Over 0.5 70.16% ▼ (-0.70)
Under 0.5 29.84% ▲ (+0.71)
Over 1.5 34.07% ▼ (-0.86)
Under 1.5 65.93% ▲ (+0.86)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5 78.42% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 0.5 21.58% ▼ (-0.01)
Over 1.5 45.33% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 1.5 54.67% ▼ (-0.01)

Score analysis

Burton Albion 30.01%
Draw 25.2%
Derby County 44.79%
Burton Albion
1-0 @ 7.79% ▲ (+0.04)
2-1 @ 7.22% ▼ (-0.12)
2-0 @ 4.71% ▼ (-0.08)
3-1 @ 2.91% ▼ (-0.11)
3-2 @ 2.23% ▼ (-0.08)
3-0 @ 1.9% ▼ (-0.07)
Other @ 3.26%
Total : 30.01%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.94% ▲ (+0.05)
0-0 @ 6.44% ▲ (+0.16)
2-2 @ 5.54% ▼ (-0.09)
3-3 @ 1.14% ▼ (-0.04)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 25.2%
Derby County
0-1 @ 9.88% ▲ (+0.24)
1-2 @ 9.16% ▲ (+0.04)
0-2 @ 7.57% ▲ (+0.18)
1-3 @ 4.68% ▲ (+0.03)
0-3 @ 3.87% ▲ (+0.10)
2-3 @ 2.83% ▼ (-0.05)
1-4 @ 1.79% ▲ (+0.01)
0-4 @ 1.48% ▲ (+0.04)
2-4 @ 1.09% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 2.44%
Total : 44.79%

Head to Head

Pre-Season Friendlies
Burton Albion
Jul 20, 2019 3.00pm
2
5
HT : 1 3
FT
Derby
  • John Brayford 22' goal
  • Scott Fraser 51' goal
  • goal Martyn Waghorn 16'
  • goal Martyn Waghorn 28'
  • goal Martyn Waghorn 37'
  • goal Mason Bennett 47'
  • goal Max Bird 93'
Championship
Burton Albion
Apr 14, 2018 3.00pm
3
1
HT : 2 1
FT
Derby
  • Liam Boyce 24' goal
  • Jake Buxton 39' yellowcard
  • Luke Murphy 44' goal
  • John Brayford 63' yellowcard
  • Lucas Akins 68' goal
  • Hope Akpan 77' yellowcard
  • goal David Nugent 29'
  • yellowcard Tom Huddlestone 49'
Championship
Derby
Dec 2, 2017 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Burton Albion
  • Johnny Russell 81' goal
  • yellowcard Tom Naylor 14'
  • yellowcard Tom Flanagan 65'
Championship
Derby
Feb 21, 2017 7.45pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Burton Albion
  • Thomas Ince 85' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Tom Naylor 69'
Championship
Burton Albion
Aug 26, 2016 7.45pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT
Derby
  • Jackson Irvine 12' goal
  • Ben Turner 89' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Craig Bryson 79'
Pre-Season Friendlies
Burton Albion
Aug 1, 2015 3.00pm
1
3
HT : 0 2
FT
Derby
  • Timmy Thiele 59' goal
  • goal Darren Bent 11'
  • goal Andreas Weimann 29'
  • goal Johnny Russell 71'

Form Data

MK Dons 1 - 1 Burton Albion
Burton Albion 6 - 1 Chippenham
Burton Albion 1 - 1 Tranmere
Burton Albion 2 - 2 Plymouth
Burton Albion 3 - 3 Charlton
Burton Albion 2 - 0 Needham Market
Derby 0 - 0 Sheff Weds
Newport 1 - 2 Derby
Portsmouth 0 - 0 Derby
Derby 5 - 0 Torquay Utd
MK Dons 1 - 3 Derby
Liverpool 0 - 0 Derby