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Championship header 2

League One

Burton Albion
League One | Gameweek 21
Dec 10, 2022 at 2pm UK
Pirelli Stadium
Derby logo

Burton Albion
1 - 1
Derby

Adeboyejo (79')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Collins (23')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Burton Albion and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Burton Albion

All competitions
League One
Last Game: MK Dons 1-1 Burton Albion
Saturday, December 3 at 12.30pm in League One

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Derby 0-0 Sheff Weds
Saturday, December 3 at 12.30pm in League One

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 44.79%. A win for Burton Albion had a probability of 30.01% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.16%) and 0-2 (7.57%). The likeliest Burton Albion win was 1-0 (7.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.

Result
Burton AlbionDrawDerby County
30.01% (-0.601 -0.6)25.2% (0.068999999999999 0.07)44.79% (0.536 0.54)
Both teams to score 55.02% (-0.541 -0.54)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.68% (-0.562 -0.56)48.32% (0.567 0.57)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.54% (-0.517 -0.52)70.47% (0.521 0.52)
Burton Albion Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.16% (-0.69699999999999 -0.7)29.84% (0.7 0.7)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.07% (-0.851 -0.85)65.93% (0.855 0.86)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.42% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)21.58% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.33% (0.012 0.01)54.67% (-0.0069999999999979 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Burton Albion 30.01%
    Derby County 44.79%
    Draw 25.2%
Burton AlbionDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 7.79% (0.031 0.03)
2-1 @ 7.22% (-0.111 -0.11)
2-0 @ 4.71% (-0.073 -0.07)
3-1 @ 2.91% (-0.103 -0.1)
3-2 @ 2.23% (-0.079 -0.08)
3-0 @ 1.9% (-0.067 -0.07)
Other @ 3.26%
Total : 30.01%
1-1 @ 11.94% (0.049999999999999 0.05)
0-0 @ 6.44% (0.15 0.15)
2-2 @ 5.54% (-0.084000000000001 -0.08)
3-3 @ 1.14% (-0.039 -0.04)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 25.2%
0-1 @ 9.88% (0.231 0.23)
1-2 @ 9.16% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
0-2 @ 7.57% (0.178 0.18)
1-3 @ 4.68% (0.021999999999999 0.02)
0-3 @ 3.87% (0.092 0.09)
2-3 @ 2.83% (-0.042 -0.04)
1-4 @ 1.79% (0.008 0.01)
0-4 @ 1.48% (0.035 0.04)
2-4 @ 1.09% (-0.016 -0.02)
Other @ 2.44%
Total : 44.79%

How you voted: Burton Albion vs Derby

Burton Albion
16.0%
Draw
24.0%
Derby County
60.0%
25
Head to Head
Jul 20, 2019 3pm
Pre-season Friendlies
Burton Albion
2-5
Derby
Brayford (22'), Fraser (51')
Waghorn (16', 28', 37'), Bennett (47'), Bird (93')
Apr 14, 2018 3pm
Burton Albion
3-1
Derby
Boyce (24'), Murphy (44'), Akins (68')
Buxton (39'), Brayford (63'), Akpan (77')
Nugent (29')
Huddlestone (49')
Dec 2, 2017 3pm
Derby
1-0
Burton Albion
Russell (81')

Naylor (14'), Flanagan (65')
Feb 21, 2017 7.45pm
Derby
0-0
Burton Albion

Ince (85')

Naylor (69')
Aug 26, 2016 7.45pm
Burton Albion
1-0
Derby
Irvine (12')
Turner (89')

Bryson (79')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0


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