Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton Under-21s win with a probability of 45.19%. A win for Stoke City Under-21s had a probability of 34.02% and a draw had a probability of 20.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton Under-21s win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.35%) and 0-1 (4.94%). The likeliest Stoke City Under-21s win was 2-1 (7.23%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.