Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City Under-21s win with a probability of 44.1%. A win for Burnley U21 had a probability of 34.12% and a draw had a probability of 21.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.82%) and 2-0 (5.4%). The likeliest Burnley U21 win was 1-2 (7.32%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.