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League One | Gameweek 23
Dec 27, 2022 at 3pm UK
University of Bolton Stadium
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Bolton
0 - 0
Derby


Bradley (61'), Aimson (89')
FT

Forsyth (26')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Bolton Wanderers and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bolton Wanderers

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Bolton 2-0 Exeter
Saturday, December 17 at 3pm in League One

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Derby 4-0 Forest Green
Saturday, December 17 at 3pm in League One

We said: Bolton Wanderers 1-1 Derby County

 The two teams are very evenly matched, as indicated by their league positions, so it is difficult to pick a winner on Boxing Day. As such, we expect that the match will finish as a draw, with both sides maintaining their place in the League One playoffs. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 47.08%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 26.22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.05%) and 2-1 (9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.59%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (8.81%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Bolton WanderersDrawDerby County
47.08% (0.90000000000001 0.9) 26.7% (0.061 0.06) 26.22% (-0.956 -0.96)
Both teams to score 47.9% (-0.88099999999999 -0.88)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.64% (-0.784 -0.78)56.36% (0.78599999999999 0.79)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.62% (-0.637 -0.64)77.39% (0.64 0.64)
Bolton Wanderers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.05% (0.085000000000008 0.09)23.95% (-0.082000000000001 -0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.82% (0.12 0.12)58.18% (-0.118 -0.12)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.99% (-1.225 -1.23)37.01% (1.228 1.23)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.2% (-1.238 -1.24)73.8% (1.242 1.24)
Score Analysis
    Bolton Wanderers 47.07%
    Derby County 26.22%
    Draw 26.7%
Bolton WanderersDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 12.66% (0.4 0.4)
2-0 @ 9.05% (0.313 0.31)
2-1 @ 9% (0.016 0.02)
3-0 @ 4.31% (0.159 0.16)
3-1 @ 4.29% (0.018 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.13% (-0.063 -0.06)
4-0 @ 1.54% (0.06 0.06)
4-1 @ 1.53% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 2.55%
Total : 47.07%
1-1 @ 12.59% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 8.86% (0.264 0.26)
2-2 @ 4.47% (-0.144 -0.14)
Other @ 0.77%
Total : 26.7%
0-1 @ 8.81% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)
1-2 @ 6.26% (-0.217 -0.22)
0-2 @ 4.38% (-0.162 -0.16)
1-3 @ 2.07% (-0.144 -0.14)
2-3 @ 1.48% (-0.099 -0.1)
0-3 @ 1.45% (-0.105 -0.11)
Other @ 1.77%
Total : 26.22%

How you voted: Bolton vs Derby

Bolton Wanderers
38.0%
Draw
24.0%
Derby County
38.0%
50
Head to Head
Apr 13, 2019 3pm
Derby
4-0
Bolton
Bryson (37'), Mount (45', 55', 82')
Johnson (28')

Ameobi (31')
> Match Report
Sep 29, 2018 3pm
Bolton
1-0
Derby
Noone (10')
Magennis (25'), Olkowski (28'), Lowe (45')

Johnson (44')
Apr 7, 2018 3pm
Derby
3-0
Bolton
Pearce (6'), Vydra (33'), Lawrence (54')
Baird (80')

le Fondre (78')
Aug 19, 2017 3pm
Bolton
1-2
Derby
Madine (92')
Karacan (35'), Beevers (57')
Nugent (8', 21')
Wisdom (79')
Apr 9, 2016 3pm
Derby
4-1
Bolton
Russell (13', 77'), Ince (38'), Butterfield (69')
Thorne (81')
Clough (73' pen.)
Vela (21'), Moxey (63')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe19134243222143
2Birmingham CityBirmingham18133234161842
3Wrexham20125330131741
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield19113530181236
5Stockport CountyStockport2096532211133
6Reading199463028231
7Barnsley208662926330
8Bolton WanderersBolton189362829-130
9Lincoln CityLincoln207762625128
10Blackpool197572931-226
11Mansfield TownMansfield187472222025
12Stevenage187471517-225
13Peterborough UnitedPeterborough197393735224
14Charlton AthleticCharlton196671819-124
15Exeter CityExeter197391721-424
16Wigan AthleticWigan196581716123
17Rotherham UnitedRotherham186571920-123
18Leyton Orient196491920-122
19Northampton TownNorthampton205692129-821
20Bristol Rovers1963101728-1121
21Crawley TownCrawley1954102032-1219
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge1945102031-1117
23Burton Albion1926111630-1412
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1932141939-2011
> League One Full Table


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