League One

League One | Gameweek 23

Dec 27, 2022 at 3pm UK

University of Bolton Stadium

Bolton
0 - 0
Derby

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Bolton Wanderers and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bolton Wanderers

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Bolton 2-0 Exeter
Saturday, December 17 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Derby County

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Derby 4-0 Forest Green
Saturday, December 17 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 47.08%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 26.22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.05%) and 2-1 (9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.59%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (8.81%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Bolton Wanderers	Draw	Derby County
47.08% ( 0.9)	26.7% ( 0.06)	26.22% ( -0.96)

Both teams to score 47.9% (

-0.88)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.64% (

-0.78)

56.36% (

0.79)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.62% (

-0.64)

77.39% (

0.64)

Bolton Wanderers Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.05% (

0.09)

23.95% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.82% (

0.12)

58.18% (

-0.12)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.99% (

-1.23)

37.01% (

1.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.2% (

-1.24)

73.8% (

1.24)

Score Analysis

Bolton Wanderers 47.07%

Derby County 26.22%

Draw 26.7%

Bolton Wanderers	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 12.66% ( 0.4) 2-0 @ 9.05% ( 0.31) 2-1 @ 9% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 4.31% ( 0.16) 3-1 @ 4.29% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.13% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 1.54% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 1.53% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.55% Total : 47.07%	1-1 @ 12.59% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.86% ( 0.26) 2-2 @ 4.47% ( -0.14) Other @ 0.77% Total : 26.7%	0-1 @ 8.81% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 6.26% ( -0.22) 0-2 @ 4.38% ( -0.16) 1-3 @ 2.07% ( -0.14) 2-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.1) 0-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.11) Other @ 1.77% Total : 26.22%