League One

League One | Gameweek 28

Jan 21, 2023 at 3pm UK

Pride Park Stadium

Derby
2 - 1
Bolton

Mendez-Laing (16'), Hourihane (72')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Sadlier (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Derby County and Bolton Wanderers, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Cheltenham 2-3 Derby
Saturday, January 14 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Bolton Wanderers

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Bolton 3-0 Portsmouth
Saturday, January 14 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 51.03%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Bolton Wanderers had a probability of 24.24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.56%) and 2-0 (9.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.76%), while for a Bolton Wanderers win it was 0-1 (7.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Bolton Wanderers
51.03% ( 0.01)	24.73% ( -0)	24.24% ( -0)

Both teams to score 51.9% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.76% (

0.02)

50.24% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.8% (

0.02)

72.2% (

-0.02)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.31% (

0.01)

19.69% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.32% (

0.02)

51.68% (

-0.02)

Bolton Wanderers Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.62% (

0.01)

35.38% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.86% (

0.01)

72.14% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Derby County 51.03%

Bolton Wanderers 24.24%

Draw 24.73%

Derby County	Draw	Bolton Wanderers
1-0 @ 11.32% 2-1 @ 9.56% ( 0) 2-0 @ 9.2% ( -0) 3-1 @ 5.18% ( 0) 3-0 @ 4.98% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.69% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.1% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.03% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.09% ( 0) Other @ 2.88% Total : 51.03%	1-1 @ 11.76% 0-0 @ 6.97% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.97% ( 0) 3-3 @ 0.93% ( 0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 24.73%	0-1 @ 7.24% ( -0) 1-2 @ 6.11% 0-2 @ 3.76% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.12% 2-3 @ 1.72% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.3% Other @ 2% Total : 24.24%