Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 51.85%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.59%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.81%), while for a Cheltenham Town win it was 0-1 (7.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.