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Championship header 2

League One

Leyton Orient
League One | Gameweek 21
Dec 9, 2023 at 3pm UK
Brisbane Road
Derby logo

Leyton Orient
0 - 3
Derby


El Mizouni (47')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Sibley (34'), Mendez-Laing (47'), Barkhuizen (79')
Hourihane (8')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Leyton Orient and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Leyton Orient

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Chesterfield 1-0 Leyton Orient
Sunday, December 3 at 2pm in FA Cup

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Derby 3-0 Fleetwood
Tuesday, December 5 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 43.49%. A win for Leyton Orient had a probability of 29.69% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.78%) and 0-2 (8.04%). The likeliest Leyton Orient win was 1-0 (9.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Leyton OrientDrawDerby County
29.69% (0.010000000000002 0.01)26.82% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)43.49% (-0.012 -0.01)
Both teams to score 49.77% (0.009999999999998 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.95% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)55.05% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.69% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)76.31% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)
Leyton Orient Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.46% (0.012999999999991 0.01)33.54% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.82% (0.015000000000001 0.02)70.18% (-0.015999999999991 -0.02)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.88% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)25.12% (0.0010000000000012 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.18% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)59.82% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Score Analysis
    Leyton Orient 29.69%
    Derby County 43.48%
    Draw 26.82%
Leyton OrientDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 9.2%
2-1 @ 6.95% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-0 @ 5.03% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-1 @ 2.53% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-0 @ 1.83% (0.0010000000000001 0)
3-2 @ 1.75% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.41%
Total : 29.69%
1-1 @ 12.71%
0-0 @ 8.42% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-2 @ 4.8% (0.0019999999999998 0)
Other @ 0.89%
Total : 26.82%
0-1 @ 11.63% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-2 @ 8.78%
0-2 @ 8.04% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-3 @ 4.05% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-3 @ 3.7% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
2-3 @ 2.21% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-4 @ 1.4%
0-4 @ 1.28% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 2.39%
Total : 43.48%

How you voted: Leyton Orient vs Derby

Leyton Orient
27.3%
Draw
0.0%
Derby County
72.7%
11