League One

League One | Gameweek 31

Feb 3, 2024 at 3pm UK

The Valley

Charlton
0 - 1
Derby

Ramsay (70'), Kanu (82')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Mendez-Laing (31')
Adams (41'), Cashin (51'), Sibley (68'), Vickers (90+1'), Hourihane (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Charlton Athletic and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Charlton Athletic

All competitions

Last Game: Blackpool 1-1 Charlton
Saturday, January 27 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Derby County

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Derby 2-1 Cheltenham
Saturday, January 27 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 52.11%. A win for Charlton Athletic had a probability of 25.13% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.61%) and 0-2 (7.95%). The likeliest Charlton Athletic win was 2-1 (6.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Charlton Athletic	Draw	Derby County
25.13% ( 0.61)	22.76% ( 0.13)	52.11% ( -0.74)

Both teams to score 59.34% (

0.22)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.15% (

-0.01)

40.85% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.76% (

-0.01)

63.24% (

0.01)

Charlton Athletic Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.44% (

0.48)

29.56% (

-0.48)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.41% (

0.58)

65.59% (

-0.58)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.24% (

-0.25)

15.76% (

0.26)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.12% (

-0.48)

44.88% (

0.48)

Score Analysis

Charlton Athletic 25.13%

Derby County 52.11%

Draw 22.76%

Charlton Athletic	Draw	Derby County
2-1 @ 6.39% ( 0.12) 1-0 @ 5.68% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 3.46% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 2.6% ( 0.08) 3-2 @ 2.4% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 1.41% ( 0.06) Other @ 3.2% Total : 25.13%	1-1 @ 10.49% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 5.91% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 4.66% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.48% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.23% Total : 22.76%	1-2 @ 9.69% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 8.61% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 7.95% ( -0.14) 1-3 @ 5.97% ( -0.08) 0-3 @ 4.9% ( -0.13) 2-3 @ 3.64% ( 0) 1-4 @ 2.76% ( -0.06) 0-4 @ 2.26% ( -0.08) 2-4 @ 1.68% ( -0.02) 1-5 @ 1.02% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.63% Total : 52.11%