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League One | Gameweek 32
Feb 10, 2024 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Shrewsbury Town

Derby
1 - 1
Shrewsbury

Bird (54')
Hourihane (67'), Adams (84')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Pierre (87')
Winchester (36'), Pierre (82'), Benning (84')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Derby County and Shrewsbury Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Charlton 0-1 Derby
Saturday, February 3 at 3pm in League One

We said: Derby County 3-1 Shrewsbury Town

Although Derby lost out to Shrewsbury in the reverse fixture, we expect the Rams to prove too strong for their opponents in Saturday's contest, especially as they have won seven of their last nine home league matches. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 74.64%. A draw had a probability of 16.3% and a win for Shrewsbury Town had a probability of 9.11%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.22%) and 3-0 (10.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.73%), while for a Shrewsbury Town win it was 0-1 (3.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.

Result
Derby CountyDrawShrewsbury Town
74.64% (-0.037000000000006 -0.04) 16.26% (0.024999999999999 0.02) 9.11% (0.02 0.02)
Both teams to score 45.07% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.66% (-0.037999999999997 -0.04)41.34% (0.047000000000004 0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.26% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)63.74% (0.046999999999997 0.05)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.51% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)9.49% (0.022 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
68.16% (-0.045999999999992 -0.05)31.84% (0.053000000000001 0.05)
Shrewsbury Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
49.79% (0.014999999999993 0.01)50.21% (-0.0080000000000027 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
15.2% (0.0089999999999986 0.01)84.8% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 74.63%
    Shrewsbury Town 9.11%
    Draw 16.26%
Derby CountyDrawShrewsbury Town
2-0 @ 13.21%
1-0 @ 11.22% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
3-0 @ 10.37% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.1% (0.0039999999999996 0)
3-1 @ 7.15% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
4-0 @ 6.11% (-0.011 -0.01)
4-1 @ 4.21% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
5-0 @ 2.88% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.46% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
5-1 @ 1.98% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-2 @ 1.45% (-0.002 -0)
6-0 @ 1.13% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 3.37%
Total : 74.63%
1-1 @ 7.73% (0.011 0.01)
0-0 @ 4.77% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-2 @ 3.14% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.63%
Total : 16.26%
0-1 @ 3.28% (0.008 0.01)
1-2 @ 2.66% (0.004 0)
0-2 @ 1.13% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.03%
Total : 9.11%

How you voted: Derby vs Shrewsbury

Derby County
89.5%
Draw
5.3%
Shrewsbury Town
5.3%
19
Head to Head
Oct 21, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 14
Shrewsbury
1-0
Derby
Hourihane (56' og.)
Flanagan (86')

Nelson (86'), Bradley (90+6')
Mar 4, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 35
Derby
2-2
Shrewsbury
Roberts (20'), McGoldrick (45+1')
Bayliss (49'), Leahy (72' pen.)
Aug 16, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 4
Shrewsbury
0-0
Derby
Bayliss (75'), Flanagan (77'), Nurse (88')
Knight (90+2')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CPortsmouth452713576413594
2Derby CountyDerby452781076373989
3Bolton WanderersBolton452511983483586
4Peterborough UnitedPeterborough452581286582883
5Barnsley4521121281631875
6Lincoln CityLincoln4520141165382774
7Oxford UnitedOxford Utd4521111377552274
8Blackpool4521101463451873
9Stevenage4518141355451068
10Wycombe WanderersWycombe451614155955462
11Leyton Orient451711175054-462
12Exeter CityExeter451710184559-1461
13Wigan AthleticWigan451910166156559
14Northampton TownNorthampton45178205665-959
15Bristol Rovers45169205266-1457
16Charlton AthleticCharlton451120146464053
17Reading451511196568-350
18Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury45139233464-3048
19Cambridge UnitedCambridge451211223961-2247
20Burton Albion451210233964-2546
21Cheltenham TownCheltenham45128254063-2344
RFleetwood TownFleetwood45913234672-2640
RPort Vale451010254174-3340
RCarlisle UnitedCarlisle4579294179-3830


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