/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F06%2Fderlog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F06%2Frealog.png)
-
Eiran Cashin
47'
-
Dwight Gayle
53'
-
Ebou Adams
57'
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Conor Hourihane
70'
-
Louie Sibley
79'
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Tyler Bindon
10'
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Andy Yiadom
32'
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Clinton Mola
49'
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Sam Smith
56'
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Andy Yiadom
59'
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Joel Pereira
69'
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Jayden Wareham
90'+4'
Derby County vs Reading - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Match Preview
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Form, Standings, Stats
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 59.58%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Reading had a probability of 18.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.95%) and 2-0 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.16%), while for a Reading win it was 0-1 (5.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
Result
Derby County
59.58%
▼
(-0.14)
Draw
21.57%
▼
(-0.02)
Reading
18.85%
▲
(+0.15)
Both Teams to Score:
54.4%
▲
(+0.33)
Goals
Over 2.5
56.81%
▲
(+0.30)
Under 2.5
43.19%
▼
(-0.30)
Over 3.5
34.41%
▲
(+0.29)
Under 3.5
65.59%
▼
(-0.30)
Over 4.5
17.83%
▲
(+0.22)
Under 4.5
82.17%
▼
(-0.22)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5
85.88%
▲
(+0.06)
Under 0.5
14.12%
▼
(-0.06)
Over 1.5
58.24%
▲
(+0.11)
Under 1.5
41.76%
▼
(-0.11)
Reading Goals
Over 0.5
63.35%
▲
(+0.34)
Under 0.5
36.65%
▼
(-0.34)
Over 1.5
26.56%
▲
(+0.33)
Under 1.5
73.44%
▼
(-0.34)
Score analysis
Derby County
59.58%
Draw
21.57%
Reading
18.85%
Derby County
1-0
@
10.13%
▼
(-0.11)
2-1 @ 9.95% ▲ (+0.01)
2-0 @ 9.92% ▼ (-0.09)
3-1 @ 6.5% ▲ (+0.02)
3-0 @ 6.47% ▼ (-0.05)
3-2 @ 3.26% ▲ (+0.04)
4-1 @ 3.18% ▲ (+0.02)
4-0 @ 3.17% ▼ (-0.02)
4-2 @ 1.6% ▲ (+0.03)
5-1 @ 1.25% ▲ (+0.01)
5-0 @ 1.24% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 2.93%
Total : 59.58%
2-1 @ 9.95% ▲ (+0.01)
2-0 @ 9.92% ▼ (-0.09)
3-1 @ 6.5% ▲ (+0.02)
3-0 @ 6.47% ▼ (-0.05)
3-2 @ 3.26% ▲ (+0.04)
4-1 @ 3.18% ▲ (+0.02)
4-0 @ 3.17% ▼ (-0.02)
4-2 @ 1.6% ▲ (+0.03)
5-1 @ 1.25% ▲ (+0.01)
5-0 @ 1.24% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 2.93%
Total : 59.58%
Draw
1-1
@
10.16%
▼
(-0.02)
0-0 @ 5.17% ▼ (-0.07)
2-2 @ 5% ▲ (+0.05)
3-3 @ 1.09% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 21.57%
0-0 @ 5.17% ▼ (-0.07)
2-2 @ 5% ▲ (+0.05)
3-3 @ 1.09% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 21.57%
Reading
0-1
@
5.19%
▼
(-0.03)
1-2 @ 5.1% ▲ (+0.04)
0-2 @ 2.61% ▲ (+0.02)
1-3 @ 1.71% ▲ (+0.03)
2-3 @ 1.67% ▲ (+0.04)
Other @ 2.57%
Total : 18.85%
1-2 @ 5.1% ▲ (+0.04)
0-2 @ 2.61% ▲ (+0.02)
1-3 @ 1.71% ▲ (+0.03)
2-3 @ 1.67% ▲ (+0.04)
Other @ 2.57%
Total : 18.85%