League One

League One | Gameweek 38

Mar 12, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

Pride Park Stadium

Derby
2 - 1
Reading

Gayle (53'), Hourihane (70' pen.)
Cashin (47'), Adams (57'), Sibley (79')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Smith (56')
Bindon (10'), Yiadom (32'), Mola (49'), Pereira (69'), Wareham (90+4')
Yiadom (59')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Derby County and Reading, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions

Last Game: Bristol Rovers 0-3 Derby
Saturday, March 9 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Reading

All competitions

Last Game: Reading 1-2 Wycombe
Saturday, March 9 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 59.58%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Reading had a probability of 18.85%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.95%) and 2-0 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.16%), while for a Reading win it was 0-1 (5.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Reading
59.58% ( -0.13)	21.57% ( -0.02)	18.85% ( 0.15)

Both teams to score 54.4% (

0.32)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.81% (

0.29)

43.19% (

-0.29)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.41% (

0.29)

65.59% (

-0.29)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.88% (

0.05)

14.12% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.24% (

0.11)

41.76% (

-0.11)

Reading Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.35% (

0.34)

36.65% (

-0.34)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.56% (

0.33)

73.44% (

-0.33)

Score Analysis

Derby County 59.58%

Reading 18.85%

Draw 21.57%

Derby County	Draw	Reading
1-0 @ 10.13% ( -0.11) 2-1 @ 9.95% ( 0) 2-0 @ 9.92% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 6.5% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 6.47% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 3.26% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 3.18% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 3.17% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.6% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 1.25% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.24% ( -0) Other @ 2.93% Total : 59.58%	1-1 @ 10.16% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 5.17% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 5% ( 0.05) 3-3 @ 1.09% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.15% Total : 21.57%	0-1 @ 5.19% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 5.1% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 2.61% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.71% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.67% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.57% Total : 18.85%